A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
